Forecasting in a down (ok, near rock bottom) economy


How are you going to do it? How are you going to analyze 2009 today to determine how to make it to 2010, or even 2011? In November, riding high on the energy of a possibility for change with a new administration, most of us felt that we could weather this economic storm. But now, as fourth quarter reports came in even worse than third quarter, the unemployment rate posted its highest numbers since World War II, how are you going to make sales projections? Some economists say we won’t even see an upturn until third quarter of 2009, and the first two years of the Obama administration may be even tougher than first anticipated. So you’ll have to be ultra-creative in finding opportunities. And clearly you can’t just sit back and ride out this storm. It’s too volatile. Instead of looking inward, what if you make the effort to see what your competitors are doing? Do you think some of them will give up for this year and hope to just survive the tsunami? Will others close completely and move on? Depending on those choices of your competitors, you may actually see open doors for more opportunities for you and those still left in the game. It’s scary to take risks when the economy is near rock bottom. But those who do continue to take calculated, smart risks will most likely forecast themselves positively into 2010 and beyond.

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